The Role of Threat Perceptions in International Relations, Analysing China’s Rise in the Indo-Pacific

Abstract

Addressing the UN General Assembly in September 2023, Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated: “The world faces another existential threat. . . . [A]nd that is the risk of conflict between great powers” (Wong, 2023). Without a doubt, this is in reference to the increasing Sino–U.S. contentions, and the theatre where this is playing out and likely to continue for the next decade or two is the Indo-Pacific region. The concept of the Indo-Pacific, based on the scholar or the state, has contested interpretations and geographic scope. However, the commonality that both have to contend with is that the geopolitical landscape in the last two decades has changed rapidly—often not for the better. Perceived threats and misperceptions of them, deep mistrust, and miscommunication are the key features that continue to capture the uncertainty the region faces. Whilst many are quick to cast their aspersions at Beijing, one has to ask why some states do not see China as a threat, others refrain from directly referring to China as a threat, or why some states, despite citing China as a threat, continue to deepen ties with China. As the world’s centre of gravity progressed from the Atlantic to the Asia-Pacific and now to the Indo-Pacific, many states in the region began to craft and establish their conceptions, strategies, and visions of what the concept of Indo-Pacific should entail. Whilst each chapter delves into more in-depth studies regarding threat perceptions and China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific, the introduction will focus on laying the groundwork for this book. After a brief overview of the region where I highlight some of the key issues and areas that can and often do provoke crises, I will then discuss the core objectives and methods for this book project, before briefly introducing each chapter.